Fantasy Football Strategy With Your Stock Portfolio (Episode 43)

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Fantasy Football Strategy With Your Stock Portfolio (Episode 43)

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Strategy for maintaining your portfolio value while still making withdrawals to pay your life expenses. And most importantly, avoiding big losses.

Kate Stalter
Host

00:04

Welcome to The MarketBeat Podcast. I'm your host, Kate Stalter. And in this show, we cut through the noise and give you real market insights from professional investors, traders, asset managers, and analysts, our guests put the market developments in context and give you actionable information to make you a more successful trader or investor. Let's get started

Kate Stalter
Host

00:33

In today's conversation with repeat guest, Rob Isbitts. We cover a lot of topics, including a strategy for maintaining your portfolio value while still making withdrawals to pay your life expenses. And most importantly, avoiding big losses. Now, Rob has a wide ranging view of the markets and he emphasizes why the bond market is so important for retirement investors these days. And you can easily see that if you look at a widely held bond ETF, like the ag, a G G that's the ticker. Now you may well own that ETF somewhere in your retirement portfolio. I know, I know it's not as exciting as stocks, but it is important. Now the ag is down 9.1% year to date just slightly less than the S and P 500. Now that's not supposed to happen that they decline at the same rate and at the same time like that, and this has consequences for retirement investors, especially those closer to retirement, or already there as Rob points out.

Kate Stalter
Host

01:40

And if you're a fan of fantasy sports, then you'll wanna listen to this episode closely because Rob explains the analogy between his investment style using ETFs and the way you would choose players to fill different slots on your team. And I'm pretty excited about that because I am about to join a fantasy football league, pretty excited about that. And there's definitely a parallel as Rob explains lots of very timely information here today. And you will come away from this thinking of markets and your portfolio very differently. Here's my conversation with Rob is Bitz of modern income investor. All right. So Rob, you know, there's a quote that I see quite a bit with regard to the market, but with regard to other things as well, but we'll focus it on the markets today that it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. That's been attributed to everybody from the Danes to Yogi Barra. So who knows, but you know, it is what every investor wants to know right now, right? And at every time what is going on, but you kind of base your market assessment on what you're seeing right in front of you with a number of proprietary indicators. So say a little bit about what you're seeing right now, let's start with the investment climate indicator.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

02:59

Sure. And of course I was big fan of Yogi Barra, big baseball fan, and great to be with you again, Kate and the MarketBeat audience. So, you know, there's the idea that we're always looking forward and we're trying to project what's gonna happen. Uh, my favorite quote of my own is that the market tells us a story. We just have to listen. So let's spend a few minutes going into what story I think the market is telling us. So let's start with the macro indicator that I've run and, and have relied on quite a bit. I created it while back it has a few different components to it, which I'm happy to talk about now are some other time, but the bottom line is the investment climate indicator. This is simply, it says, you know, not how much money you can make, but because you can always make money, there's always a chance to ma to buy something and make money on it.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

03:51

The question is how much major risk is there? So what's the cost of investing money in any climate. So right now we're at stormy. And, uh, as you might imagine, that's as bad as it gets, not in terms of predicting, okay, because I'm not Yogi Bera, Nostradamus or any of that. So, you know, there are five ranges, you know, when the risk of taking a risk, if you will, is low it's sunny can be partly sunny, cloudy, rainy, or stormy. Well, we've been stormy since January 26th of this year. So as usual, the ICI, which got about a 20 year history, if folks wanna see it, we certainly see that the risk is high. So I think I would start with that and we can get more micro as you wish.

Kate Stalter
Host

04:36

Yeah. Rob, let me follow up something, perhaps the audience, if they're tracking the S and P and the broader market right now, we have seen gains in the market in recent weeks. The market is holding above its June kind of mid-June structure lows in here. We have been seeing some stocks rising following earnings reports. So give us a little more detail of what the components go into this and why you are viewing the climate to stormy right now.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

05:03

Sure. And by the way, it's a quantitative measure. I mean, I, I created the rules a long time ago and I went through, uh, just scores and scores of different market and economic indicators. And this is certainly not the only one we follow, but this is the sort of macro intermediate term called six to 12 month type of indicator. And it has pretty good record, you know, when this thing's stormy, , it usually means that the market is not going up in the next 12 months could go down a lot. But again, we have to play the market we have and the market we see and, you know, not the one we wish we had, right? So there are five components. The first one is the Cape PE that's made famous by bobs Schiller the professor at Yale. And that pretty much takes a price earnings ratio of the S and P 500, but smooths it out for inflation, bigger factor now, but it also smooths it out over a 10 year period of earnings.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

05:57

Uh, so you're not getting the jumpiness that you normally get out of PE ratio, if you're looking ahead or looking back and, you know, the Cape is down, uh, pretty sharply since stock prices fell. Yeah. PEs are coming down, but, you know, had mentioned before, uh, about earnings. So, you know, earnings could fall a lot more. I mean, the Fang earnings, I believe are down 10% in last report. So I mean, and I would guess I would add as, as sort of a, just, Hey, maybe we'll come back to this months from now and say, oh, that was a tip off one of many for a, for a weaker bear market. The Cape right now, Cape PE ratio is at exactly the same level. It was in, in drum roll, please. October of 1929. That's a little ominous. Well, it's on the way down. And as soon as it just like with the inflation argument, you know, well, inflation's peaking.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

06:50

That's great. So maybe it won't be nine. Maybe it'll be five or it'll be six. That's still difficult. So anyway, that's the Cape, the other four consumer sentiment, which is sitting near an all-time low from back in 1980, if you can believe the level that it's at now, that usually means recession the unemployment rate. And I don't use the U three as they call it the headline one, I use the U six U six includes discouraged workers, part-time workers, people working three jobs when they wanna work one. And in the recent employment reports that we've had, that has been the highlight to me that the job numbers look good, but the quality in terms of our people working, full-time a lot of part-time stuff in there. Uh, leave it to people who are much more economists than me to, uh, to, to debate that. But usually when the rate of, uh, unemployment, okay.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

07:43

And look, the U six is under 7% right now, which is extremely low, low is good, but you know what they say? You know, when it looks like it can't get any better, it can only get worse. So the last two are both bond spreads. One is the 10, two treasury spread. We gotta have a whole podcast on that because the yield curve was inverted that usually signals recession. It UN inverted, which is really what signals recession. Okay. When it inverts, meaning a TIF a two year treasury is yielding more than a 10 year treasury. That's a little whacked, isn't it? You would expect that 10 year treasury, it would always yield more than the two cuz their money's held up for longer, et cetera. So it inverted once it UN inverted, which is when you start the recession watch now is not only re inverted, but in a historical to an historical level.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

08:38

And then the last one is triple B spreads on, uh, corporate bonds. I'm a corporate bond bear been one for a long time. I think I've been pretty spot on about that. Bonds are, are a dangerous weapon in your portfolio and dangerous to the owner avoid like plague is what it says in my nose here. Okay. So, uh, you know, look the, uh, again, the bond spreads triple BS are sort of borderline junk. There's a lot of triple B bonds that probably should be junk, but the fed was buying them for two years. And now that is, uh, starting to come off. And again, similar trend, like a lot of these indicators, these sub indicators of our ICI kind of tracing out a trend very similar to 2008. So all I can say is far as our ICI goes, uh, watch out it's stormy.

Kate Stalter
Host

09:26

I wanna follow up on this discussion of the bond market because I know very well that one of the key tenants of your investment philosophy is bond alternatives. And you know, a lot of people only tend to focus on the stock market. They probably have some fixed income. If they're working with an advisor, they probably have some of that in their portfolio. Don't really pay much attention to it because stocks get all the headlines and let's face it. They're a lot more interesting, a lot more fun. Talk about where you see the bond market right now and how investors should be approaching that part of their portfolio.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

10:06

So let's make one thing clear, right? At the beginning of this part of the discussion, I am not one of the rules of investment strategists that say, okay, here's an alternative to bonds. Don't buy treasuries, buy preferreds. That's not, Rob is Bitz. Don't ever quote me on that. Okay. Reaching for yield is not the way you get around a historic period in which the fed is unwinding 13 years of easy money and a lot of companies that they call zombie companies because they're only alive because they can still issue debt. As soon as the debtors would say, Hey, no more. They're done. Just think about a small business. Okay. As soon as your lenders cut off, you're done. Okay. Doesn't matter if you're a.com or an old economy company. So, and so when it comes to today's bond market, okay, treasuries, I guess, are in a class by themselves.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

11:05

Boy have they've been volatile. Boy, have they lost a lot of people? Money boys have been a big surprise to people who have lost a lot of money. And didn't know this could happen if you study your history, which is, you know, frankly, that's not the investor's job. In most cases, it's a job of people like me, people like you. So knowing the history and seeing the conditions, you know, 10 years ago, I started to focus my investment work back when I was an advisor that had a client base. And since I sold that practice a couple of years ago and converted, you know, poof into a researcher publisher, similar transition that you made, I might add. Okay. And we like it on this side. Yes. Yeah. So no one ever said, Hey, come over to the dark side. You know, although I do remember my son, when he was a little kid, he had the cutest t-shirt it said, come over to the dark side. We have cookies.

Kate Stalter
Host

11:55

okay. Well, that's a reason.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

11:57

Yeah. So anyway, we have gone over to not, uh, so much the dark side, but the bond market boy, that's the dark side. Okay. You know, the, you can't get away from replacing bonds with other types of bonds. You can't get away from bonds by, I mean, what was it that bonds gave us. Okay. I'm talking about replacing the role that bonds used to play in a portfolio. If you are, let's call it in the, let's say 75% of the way to retirement financially or in retirement. This is speaking directly to you. If you are not in that category, it speaks to you in a different way. You might have a 60, 40 portfolio. God forbid. Okay. Or you might have an 80, 20 with a little bit of bonds. Well, you always think of the bonds almost like cash. That's the way people have been taught. And so that is not what we're talking about at all. Okay. What I'm talking about is what did bonds use to do? They gave you very low volatility experience. Okay. You didn't have to worry that your a hundred dollars was gonna be worth 70 after a corporate earnings report or, you know, after a flash crash. Okay. So that's one you're looking for relative stability and low volatility. Okay. So you can count on that money because it's probably the money you'll take out before the money's in your stock portfolio

Kate Stalter
Host

13:20

In earlier market cycles, they did accomplish that goal.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

13:24

Bonds did exactly what they were supposed to do for 30, some odd years. Okay. Now they don't. But the problem is they have such a great reputation that as a, you know, an equity cushion. Okay. Or, Hey, they yield a little more than cash. Well, the markets and the fed took that away by driving rates to zero. Now, as rates start to go back up. Okay. What happens to bond prices when rates go up, they fall. Okay. And on top of that, you that, and look, that's the treasury market. The treasury might be a little more of a pure play on where interest rates are going, but people forget. I mean, I was writing about this years ago, if the long bond goes up by 1% in interest rate that equates to about a 17% decline in principle. Okay. That's a lot, if you're expecting a bond like return. Okay. So that game is over and it's not coming back anytime soon, because even though rates may drift a little bit higher, you have all the credit problems, the credit market's a mess. I encourage anybody who hasn't seen the big short to go back and watch it. And if you have watched it as I have go back and watch it again. Okay. Because not much has really changed in 13 years.

Kate Stalter
Host

14:38

And Michael Barry is out there making some dire predictions right now, too, as a matter of fact,

Rob Isbitts
Guest

14:43

That's right. I see what he sees. Okay. I just don't have the, uh, the street cred that he does. You know, I have my own street credit. I I'd love to say I'm a deal list celebrity in this

Kate Stalter
Host

14:53

Rob Isbitts
Guest

14:54

Okay. So what do you do? Okay. That's the problem? Alright. What's the solution? Well, the solution, I think is very straightforward and dare I say again, potential spinoff podcast episode here. Okay. What I've tried to do for investors in my publishing research phase of my career here, which is, you know, from two years ago to the rest of my career. And you know, I've tried to take everything that I've learned over the years and try to consolidate it. And the best way to consolidate it, I found was to take a page out of the world of ready for this fantasy sports.

Kate Stalter
Host

15:36

I knew we were going get there. I had a question for you about that. Okay.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

15:40

Yeah. All right. So I've stolen. Kate's thunder.

Kate Stalter
Host

15:43

Yes. .

Rob Isbitts
Guest

15:44

Well, it won't be until last time. All so what do we do? I'll give you an example. It's probably just easier. Okay. So let's say that you wanna build a portfolio to replace what bonds used to do. Well, to me, it starts out with, okay, how are you going to allocate? Okay. Your philosophy is clear. I wanna replace what bonds used to do now, are you gonna be able to produce cash on cash income? Not without taking massive risk. I mean, that's gonna be a stormy environment for a long, long time. So what you do instead is you think of it as well. Instead of bonds, let's think low volatility, total return, okay. In the hedge fund business, they may call this absolute return, but it's not as tight as that is basically saying, let's start with the idea that if we have a hundred dollars, okay, we are gonna work like, heck to keep that a hundred at at least 95, no matter what.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

16:42

Okay. But then every time we make some money over the hundred, we're gonna take that profit. And if we're income oriented, we're gonna take the profit and put it in our pocket and use it to live our life. And if you are not that way, you can take the profit and keep it in. If you want to, then it becomes kind of a regular low volatility conservative portfolio. And that was the basis of this is something I have a 10 year track record, uh, audited and whole thing running first for my clients. And you know, now in the, in the research sphere. So it's all about, you know, first don't lose big or ABL, avoid big loss. And then from there it's about portfolio structure and the portfolio structure is as simple as answering a few questions. How many slots do I want to have in the portfolio? Now I use ETFs because I don't want to have the stock problems. And there's so many ETFs that you can use. We cast a very wide net.

Kate Stalter
Host

17:39

Does that reduce volatility in the portfolio as well? I'm sure it

Rob Isbitts
Guest

17:42

Does. It absolutely reduces volatility, but it does not Rob you of upside. Okay. The important thing about this is there's no cap on the upside, but there's a dedicated effort to ABL, avoid big loss. My fir you know, my two rules of investing, Kate, I may have mentioned this before. First rule is avoid big loss in this case, you know, we're talking yeah. Within 5% of zero, 10%, if there's a total calamity. Okay. And then the second rule is make as much as you freaking can. But remember that the first rule is more important, sort of a takeoff on the Warren buffet rule. You know, number one, don't lose number two, see rule number one. Okay. But I don't know if, how you ever make money that way, but I guess he's done it. So anyway, where does this all come out? What did it look like in a portfolio?

Rob Isbitts
Guest

18:30

Well, you're playing offense and defense at the same time. So let's say we were gonna do it and say, all right, I wanna have four ETFs in my portfolio. Well, we have created in our research, a variety, uh, whether it's two ETFs, four ETFs, seven ETFs, and helping people to model those portfolios. So how do you beat bonds? How do you replace what bonds used to do you say, all right, how many ETFs am I gonna have in the portfolio? What are the allocations to those ETFs going to be? And which ETF is going to occupy each of the four slots, if you will. And this brings me back to fantasy sports. It's like saying, okay, let's say in this simple example, you got four different players on the field. All right. You're drafting, uh, a quarterback, a running back, a tight end and a defense.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

19:25

Okay. I'm sure there's a lot of wide receivers that are pissed at me right now, but anyway, okay. So they're in there somewhere. quarterback running back tight end defense. Okay. Well, you have a selection of quarterbacks and for your fantasy team, anytime you want, you know, every week or whatever your league is, okay. You can decide which quarterback, well, how many quarterbacks do you wanna follow? In other words, how many ETFs to fill that first slot? Do you wanna follow? Do you wanna follow 3, 4, 12, 20? You know, and we provide sort of an expanded research deck for people to kind, sort of custom fitted to how they wanna do it with our framework. And so that's what you do for each of the four slots. So at any point in time, in the same way that you go into a Sunday saying, oh, well, this guy's my quarterback.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

20:12

This is my running back. This is my title. And this is my defense. Let's play the game on Sunday. Well, next Sunday, you may decide on a different team. So similarly you may say, all right, these are the four ETFs, the best position in each of the four segments of the portfolio that I have created for myself. But then I'm gonna have the discipline to say, okay, whenever my methodology says, Hey, wait a minute. I have 10, you know, ETFs to choose from for that number one, bucket that number one slot, when one of them is better than the one that I'm in have right now, I'm gonna sell the one I have and I'm gonna upgrade. And so it's a constant upgrading process, like a fantasy roster, but let's get back to investing,

Kate Stalter
Host

20:54

Not sure what stocks to buy and which to sell. Well, no worries. Market beat. Has you covered get the latest buy and sell ratings from wall Street's top performing most accurate and most respected research analyst. That's just one part of what you will receive as a MarketBeat all access subscriber. You'll also get MarketBeat's new trending stockless which monitor social media chatter in real time to help you identify the next game stop or AMC. Before you hear about it on the news market, beat all access also features realtime news market events and performance data for your stocks, with the MarketBeat portfolio monitoring tool. And you can take a completely risk free trial for just $1. If you head over to the link we will put in the show notes, you'll get best in class stock research tools, performance ratings for wall street analysts, real time, newsfeed, executive support team access, all of this add free for just $1 for the first month. Sign up today. The link is in the show notes. You know, it occurs to me while you were speaking a few minutes ago about the whole methodology of being. You can spin out some income and then maintain your principle. That strikes me Rob, as quite different than the way the traditional investment advisor does their planning for spending down your entire portfolio. How come they haven't caught on?

Rob Isbitts
Guest

22:32

Well, like they say, uh, Steve jobs, one of my favorite quotes, Kate people don't know what they want until you show it to them. And I think that wall street has a vested interest in giving people things that are very product based. Okay. It's all a product sale. And here, none of these are our products. It's our philosophy. It's our system. It's our mechanism. But again, you and I are no longer giving, you know, personalized advice to people. We're giving them the tools and, you know, the ongoing knowledge to be able to, to do it. And I think, you know, when I thought about this, I mean, two, about two years since I sold the practice, you know, I started thinking about, okay, what does the world need? And what can Rob Ibis and his team provide. And we had a few fits and starts trying to figure it out.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

23:23

Is it hedge investing? Is it low volatility investing? Is it just ETF investing, using a handful of ETFs? Is it, you know, trading timing, et cetera. And frankly, it's a little bit of all those things. Okay. But the main thing is that it is a structure and structure means discipline, but at the same time, it's not so closed that you can't make it your own as they like to say an American idol. I think so. You know, at the end of the day, replacing bonds is not like something that, Hey, let's figure out something and go with that. And then, you know, wait around until the bond market looks better. Okay. That's about the worst advice. I think anybody can get, cuz we have no idea. It could be six months. It could be 16 years. All right. You know, people say the equity market comes back.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

24:17

Well, they didn't live through a 13 year period where the S and P return was like a couple of new Yorkers like us would often say gots, okay, 13 years of gots, you got no return. You got no return. All right. In the equity market S and P 500, look it ups. Anyway, look at the end of the day. Okay. Here's the takeaway bonds don't do it now, by the way, it doesn't mean that you can't have a bond. ETF is part of your mix, but this is a tactical portfolio. Okay. So you're constantly looking for upgrade, reduce risk, and use the word before. And I can't end this show without coming back to that. It's the same word my wife used when we started doing this for ourselves earlier this year said, Hey, let's try to make some extra income. How do you think you're gonna do it?

Rob Isbitts
Guest

25:03

And I said, and I described her and she said, oh, so you're just gonna spin income out. Hey, it's a hundred dollars. It grows to a hundred, one or 102, take that out, get it back to a hundred. So my job is to keep that thing as close to a hundred or higher almost all the time. And her job is to withdraw the money when it's above a certain amount. And you know, the initial results were so good. And it's all really just a, if I will, a spinoff of the core portfolio that I ran for clients and I've run, you know, for myself and in our research products and stuff for ah, 20 years.

Kate Stalter
Host

25:46

Yeah. I like that. You're putting your own money in there. You're kind of eating your own cooking, so to speak. I like that.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

25:52

And it's particularly applied to what I believe is the generational issue of today. If you are at least 75% of the way toward retirement, and that is you need to replace what bonds used to do. Okay. It's like saying, you know what, my whole life, I was used to things going one way and imagine all these people, Kate that have hit retirement, or they're getting close to it. Okay. They are not getting what their parents got. They're not getting the CD rates. You know, at colossal percent with stability, they're getting a mess of a bond market, which is on the edge of falling off the ledge. So they've gotta be creative and wall. Street's not helping 'em with the same old solutions that don't account for big losses, inequities don't account for big losses in bonds. That's why all the 60 40 stuff is getting crushed. This year. There has to be a different way. I've always invested this way. I just didn't invest for specifically pulling money out low volatility. Total return is one thing it's another to say, but with a specific objective for cash flow. And I think that's how you do it going forward. And the future will tell whether I'm right wrong somewhere in between. All I know is, is giving structure to a lot of folks that I think have been clamoring for it. And they're not getting it from the usual suspects on wall street,

Kate Stalter
Host

27:15

Which makes a ton of sense, because, you know, as the advisors are fond of saying not that they can necessarily deliver this, but they're fond of telling their clients, you are investing to fund your life expenses, and you're actually doing something here. It sounds like that is very much delivering upon that. Not just lip service.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

27:36

Yep. Well, thank you for saying that. I mean, look, it is interesting time of our lives and careers. I think both of us, because you know, you're at the point where you wanna, you know, you have this need, okay. And you need to find ways to do it, but you know, you can't fall for the same old, same old. And so again, we have to get creative and that's why to me, at the core of all this is research on about a hundred ETFs that are considered for the program. And again, just getting people to think in terms of have a philosophy, have a process, have a strategy. And the last part, which people focus a lot of time on, and it's part of the process, but it's far from the only one is, okay, what do you buy and sell and when important part of the process, but there's a lot that comes before it. And that's what I'm trying to do, ironically, you know, I mean, you and I are not in the business of giving personalized advice anymore. So kind of how to craft this whole research set up so that we could deliver it, but in a way that it is generic enough because you know, it's not one on one advice.

Kate Stalter
Host

28:44

Yeah. And you know, I wanna wrap up here, thank you for your time today as always. But one thing that strikes me today as we're speaking is the fact that you and I both have a lot to say about the problems with the traditional financial advisory industry. And maybe someday we can come back and do an episode on that because we could easily fill up half an hour with that. No problem. But Rob, in the meantime, if the listeners are interested in learning more about sun garden and what you're doing, how do they find you?

Rob Isbitts
Guest

29:15

So if they want to see what we're doing and learn more about it, it's modern income investor.com, modern income investor.com.

Kate Stalter
Host

29:27

All right. Hey Rob, thank you so much as always great conversation today and appreciate you joining the show. We will definitely do this again.

Rob Isbitts
Guest

29:35

Thanks Kate.

Kate Stalter
Host

29:38

Thanks again for listening to The MarketBeat Podcast, do not forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, anywhere else, you get your Podcasts. And you'll also find us on marketbeat.com. If you enjoy the content here, please give us a five star review. So others can also find all the great interviews and market insights that we bring to you each week. Also, did you know that MarketBeat has a YouTube channel? We sure do. The Podcasts are there as well as tips for getting the most out of MarketBeat and becoming as always a better investor or trader.

Rob Isbitts

Rob Isbitts, Guest

Sungarden Investment

Kate Stalter

Kate Stalter, Host

MarketBeat Contributor, MarketBeat

Kate Stalter is a Series 65-licensed asset manager, with more than two decades of experience in various areas of financial services. As an investment advisor and financial planner, Kate personally manages client portfolios, with a focus on successful retirement, including asset allocation, income generation and tax strategies. Kate also serves as a capital-markets contributor at Forbes.com, and is an expert columnist for the investment advisory channel at U.S. News & World Report.

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