James R. Fitterling
Chair and Chief Executive Officer at DOW
Thank you, Jeff. Moving to slide eight. Dow is well positioned to capture demand and drive earnings growth as the economic recovery takes hold. This is reflected in our competitive advantages and early cycle growth investments which are advancing while also demonstrating Dow's continued focus on operational and financial discipline. And we have a differentiated portfolio with structurally advantaged assets, global scale and low-cost positions in every region. Healthy oil-to-gas spreads, supported by growing natural gas and NGL production in North America, favor our cost advantage and ability to capture continued margin improvements as the economic recovery gathers strength. We've also taken actions to grow Dow's earnings as we execute our near-term, higher-value, lower-risk growth investments that are expected to deliver approximately $2 billion in incremental underlying EBITDA by mid-decade.
Since 2021 we have added capacity that will increase our mid-cycle EBITDA by approximately $800 million, including investments in our FCDh unit in Louisiana and our -- capacity investments in the United States and Europe that serve attractive market segments such as consumer nondurables and pharma. In addition, we have invested in multiple downstream silicone debottlenecks to address fast-growing applications in MobilityScience and electronics. We are on track to achieve the remaining $1.2 billion of our near-term EBITDA target by mid-decade, enabled by our lower risk and higher return growth projects. These investments represent a significant portion of Dow's earnings growth in the next up cycle. Moving to slide nine. Dow continues to execute with financial and operational discipline as we invest through the bottom of the chemical industry's economic cycle for long-term profitable growth. Our near-term growth and efficiency investments continue to progress with our propylene glycol expansion in Thailand achieving mechanical completion this month.
We are also making good progress on our Decarbonize & Grow strategy, including our Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. Construction began earlier this month, where we're installing the first of approximately 4,000 piles that will anchor the foundation of our new net zero cracker. In addition, all long lead time equipment items have been ordered, further demonstrating our consistent focus on locking in cost efficiencies for this project. We also entered into a long-term agreement with Pembina, a leading ethane supply and transportation provider, to supply and transport up to 50,000 barrels per day of ethane. With this latest agreement, we have secured the majority of our cost-advantaged ethane supply with multiple suppliers in the region. Overall, I expect the Path2Zero project to deliver an additional $1 billion per year in mid-cycle EBITDA growth at full run rates over the economic cycle. In addition, we continue to advance circularity through our Transform the Waste strategy via strategic partnerships and offtake agreements.
This includes a recent joint development agreement with Procter & Gamble, which will create a new recycling technology aimed at converting hard-to-recycle plastic packaging into recycled polyethylene. The result will be near virgin quality and lower greenhouse gas emissions than virgin polyethylene. All in, we expect our Transform the Waste initiatives to generate more than $500 million of incremental run rate EBITDA by 2030. Turning to slide 10. Our actions since 2019 have created a stronger Dow. Over the past five years, we have worked hard to improve our balance sheet, to improve cash flow conversion and to build a more resilient company that maintains consistent discipline. This was demonstrated when we delivered $12.4 billion in peak EBITDA in 2021, higher than any other time frame in Dow's history. This has created the opportunity for us to invest strategically at the bottom of the cycle for long-term profitable growth.
And as implementation of our growth strategy increases our underlying EBITDA, we will continue to target at least 65% of operating net income to shareholders as we move up the next peak. This means at least 45% in dividends and 20% in share buybacks. Closing on slide 11, I want to thank you for your interest and ownership in Dow. The team and I look forward to engaging with many of you on our 2024 Investor Day on May 16. As a reminder, the event will be hosted from the New York Stock Exchange. It will also be available via live webcast. More information can be found on our website at investors.dow.com. During the event, we will share progress on Dow's commitment to improve underlying earnings by greater than $3 billion by 2030 that will enable raising the mid-cycle as well as the trough and peak earnings levels.
We'll demonstrate our consistent commitment to operational and financial discipline, our capital allocation priorities and our leadership in attractive market verticals. And we'll show how, taken together, this creates significant value creation as we grow earnings and enhance shareholder returns over the cycle. Before I turn it over to Pankaj, he mentioned at the top of the call that we have our incoming Vice President of Investor Relations, Andrew Riker, joining us today. I'd like to take a minute to congratulate Andrew as he takes charge and to thank Pankaj for leading the Investor Relations team over the last three years and also for his contributions to our upcoming Investor Day. Pankaj, we look forward to seeing your achievements in your next role leading our Dow Industrial Solutions business.
With that, Pankaj, please get us started with the Q&A.